Archive for October, 2011

26 Oct 2011

New UK population estimates for the next 25 years

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has today released it’s estimates of UK population growth for the next 25 years. They quote the following salient points:
  • The UK population is projected to increase by 4.9 million from an estimated 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million over the ten year period to 2020
  • Projected natural increase (more births than deaths) accounts for 56 per cent of the projected increase over the next decade
  • The UK population is projected to increase to 73.2 million over the 25 year period to mid-2035, which is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent
  • The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2027
  • The population is projected to continue ageing with the average (median) age rising from 39.7 years in 2010 to 39.9 years in 2020 and 42.2 by 2035
Given below is a chart showing the ONS estimates in so far as migration and natural births and deaths will have an impact on the UK population in the next 25 years:
Total at start 		62.3	64.8	67.2	69.4	71.4

Births			4.2	4.2	4.1	4.0	4.0
Deaths			2.8	2.8	2.9	3.0	3.2
Natural change		1.4	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.8
Net migration		1.1	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Total change		2.5	2.4	2.2	2.0	1.8

Population at end	64.8	67.2	69.4	71.4	73.2

One of the key findings is in respect of numbers of people ageing. The average age of the UK population will rise from 39.9 years in 2010 to 42.2 years in 2035. The numbers of people aged 75 and over will double in the next 25 years from 4.9 million to 8.9 million. The numbers of people in the oldest age group is expected to rise the highest from 1.4 million of people aged 85 and over, to become 3.5 million by 2035 and numbers of people aged between 60-74 to rise from 9.2 million in 2010 to 12 million in 2035.

One of the forecasts relates to numbers of people of state pension age (SPA). The figures for these will increase by 28 per cent from 12.2 million to 15.6 million by 2035. By 2035, even given future planned changes in SPA, there will be significant impact. Currently there are 3.15 person of working age for every person of SPA. By 2035 there will be 2.87 person of working age for every person of SPA.

All of these findings, the ONS points out, are predictions based on a number of factors and the furthest the time period for which predictions are made, the more inaccuracies may be inherent in calculations. However we, at Swansea Bay REC, believe that these predictions must be taken seriously and acted upon in order for authorities to plan well in advance for such changes in our population.

25 Oct 2011

Obituary for Mr Shahnoor Ali

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It is with sadness that we inform you of the sudden passing away of Mr Shahnoor Ali, a well known local person who was involved in many worthwhile causes in the Swansea area.

Shahnoor Ali was one of the founding members of the predecessor of Swansea Bay REC, the West Glamorgan Community Relations Council. Indeed he continued his interest in the organsation throughout the past 30+ years until very recently.

He had been a Trustee of Swansea Mosque since its inception in the 1980s. Mr Ali was also very active in affairs relating to the Bangladeshi community living and working in the area. He will be remembered for the enthusiasm and energy that he possessed in being involved with local affairs especially his continuing links with Swansea Mosque. Mr Ali’s funeral (namaz e janaazah) takes place at the Swansea Mosque on Wednesday 26th October 2011 after Zuhr prayers which are due at 1:30pm.

May his soul be blessed. His family have asked everyone who knew him to keep him in their prayers.

Post Note: The funeral prayers for Mr Shahnoor Ali was held after Zuhr prayers at Swansea Mosque with record numbers of people attending the prayers. It is very rare that there is no standing room at the Mosque but this was indeed the case. It goes to show how well Mr Ali had been liked and respected by the Muslim community of Swansea. Please pray for his maghfirat!

25 Oct 2011

The Bevan Foundation Annual Meeting

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The Bevan Foundation held an evening of Culture, Community and Celebration to mark 10 years of the Bevan Foundation on Friday 21st October 2011 at Ebbw Vale. This was to celebrate 10 years of existence of the Bevan Foundation which has continued to contribute to many major political debates on issues affecting the people of Wales.

The gathering (shown in the picture) were treated to a stimulating lecture by the prominent local historian, Dai Davies on the topic of ‘The Dream of Aneurin Bevan’. The audience appreciated an insight into what Aneurin Bevan’s ethos had been even when creating the landmark National Health Service (NHS). Dai Davies argued that the provision of free health care was in Bevan’s view simply an element of allowing people to live a full life, and thus contribute to the growth of a happy and healthy society by freeing people from their health worries.

Prior to the celebrations, the Bevan Foundation held a well attended Annual General Meeting at which the Trustees presented a report on what the Foundation had done over the previous twelve months. A number of new Trustees were also elected to serve on the Foundation’s Governing Body.